From the supply side, although the production line shutdown in the Shahe area had a great impact on the production capacity at that time, the industry's operating efficiency was better than the high cost of cold repair. After the year, many production lines were re-launched and the cold repair production line was less. As a result, the production capacity has been quickly repaired. As of today, some of the lack of production capacity due to environmental shutdowns has been repaired. From the policy point of view, the reduction of production capacity under the influence of environmental protection policy does not mean that the glass industry has really entered the production reduction cycle. Unless the industry's living environment deteriorates drastically, the supply pressure in the second half of 2018 is still relatively large.
From the cost side, the current cost of the glass industry is generally low, so it is difficult to form an effective support for the price from the cost side. It is expected that the glass production cost will not increase significantly in the second half of the year, and will be stabilized or slightly increased in the later stage.
From the demand side, the future performance will be weaker than the same period in 2017. One of them is mainly the decline in the demand for architectural glass, while the increase in automobile and export is relatively limited and the proportion is small, and the second is from an unprecedented policy. The intensity of control will have a greater impact on the entire construction industry in the future. Therefore, in the medium and long term, the overall weakening pattern of low value-added glass demand is difficult to change. The future opportunities mainly appear in the staged peak season demand improvement and product structure upgrade.
Throughout the glass market in the first half of 2018, in the case of winter manufacturers continue to price, the price of glass at the beginning of the year continued to remain high, traders and processing companies are less willing to sell goods, and the growth rate of production enterprises has reached a high point in recent years. After the Spring Festival, there were a lot of stocks in the enterprises, so the price of glass at the beginning of the year was under pressure. The lag in demand in March and April was a serious blow to the confidence of the market at that time, and the price of glass fell rapidly. Some regions even cut prices significantly several times a week to reduce inventory pressure. Later, with the sharp decline in prices and the continued recovery of the demand side, downstream confidence has improved, manufacturers have also improved relatively well, and glass prices have gradually recovered. At present, in addition to the fact that some manufacturers are still seriously accumulating due to the sales strategy, the inventory pressure of the whole industry is low. Judging from the supply side, the production line was revived in the first half of the year. The production capacity reduced due to environmental protection problems has been supplemented in other regions. The overall supply of the industry is high. In the second half of the year, the production enterprises are attracted by the high profit rate of the industry. Resumption of production, from the current resumption of production plan, from July to October will have a capacity of about 7300t / d gradually, the second half of the production capacity will also reach a new peak in the past two years; from the demand side, the first half In addition to the lag in time, the demand has also fallen by nearly 10% in the overall order volume. Although the current time has gradually approached the traditional peak season of Jinjiuyin 10, the demand will also be raised in the case of accelerated acceleration of various housing enterprises. Zhen, but in the current high supply and high price of the glass industry, the late construction materials industry has been continuously affected by the high-pressure policy of real estate. We should not be blindly optimistic about the above space of this round of price, even if demand arises later. At the turning point, the market sentiment in the market will gradually turn into pessimism.